As e-commerce became ubiquitous over the last few years, consumers consistently kept lowering what they considered an acceptable delivery wait time for free shipping further and further. This trend may now be stabilizing.
Consumers appear to be settling at just over three days of wait time on deliveries with free shipping, around the same as in 2021 (figure 1). In 2012 the acceptable delivery time was five-and-a-half days, and it had been on a downward trajectory ever since. For a typical shipper with a multi-node regional network, one-day fulfillment plus two-day ground shipping is very achievable and, in many instances, potentially even cost-effective. As things stand, however, anything below three days exceeds the capability of most delivery networks to make free shipping economically viable even after raising the minimum spend threshold. This year’s result, then, is good news. There are several possible explanations for expected delivery time to not have dropped this year, including the revival of in-person shopping as recovery from the pandemic continues. Consumer expectations may also have been modulated by rampant news coverage of congested supply chains and ports as well as overburdened delivery providers. However, more than 40% of surveyed consumers consider waiting four days or longer unacceptable.
FIGURE 1: CONSUMERS’ WILLINGNESS TO WAIT FOR ONLINE DELIVERIES WAS ON A DOWNWARD TREND
5.5
5.0
4.8
4.3
4.1
3.8
3.5
3.4
2012
2014
2016
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Note: Weighted average of maximum acceptable delivery time for free shipping, in number of days
The availability of free shipping remains critical when making the purchase decision for delivery.
Slightly fewer number of consumers are using the buy- online-pick-up-in-store (BOPIS) option than last year.
74% of the consumers surveyed by AlixPartners said it has a great impact, with only 4% saying it was not a consideration. Consumers had been more willing to pay for delivery last year, but that deference to the difficulties of the pandemic seems to be over.
6.9% vs. 7.6% Consumers most utilize pickup options in cases of immediate need or due to shipping costs. BOPIS, which often presents impulse-purchase opportunities for retailers, seems to be leveling off into a consistent use rate after having seen an initial uptick during COVID-19 store shutdowns.
Delivering on demand: How many days is too many?
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